FIRE calculators draw a smooth 7% curve. Damodaran's NYU Stern S&P 500 series (dividends reinvested, updated 5 January 2026) is not that curve. $100 at the start of 1928 was $1,157,598.95 at year-end 2025: 10.02% a year over 98 years, the constant that matches a jagged path.
2022–2025 was −18.04%, +26.06%, +24.88%, +17.78% — 11.0% compounded, not several years of 4%. The chart is four 15-year compounds from his $100 cumulatives. Same series. Different windows.
One recomputable annuity: $500 month-end × 15 years at 7% nominal, compounded monthly, tax-advantaged, no fee: $158,481. In: $90,000. Growth: $68,481. 7% is a planning rate, not a forecast.
Order and skips move the pile. $12,000 at each 2000–2009 year-start: $126,252; same returns reversed: $105,688. A $100,000 lump is $90,863 either way. Keep the same $12,000 through 2022–2025: $72,269. Skip the −18% year: $54,033. Smooth 7% on four: $57,009. Hold $200,000 from year-end 2022 through the next three years: $370,827. Spend the gains: still $200,000.
This week: lock the payday transfer. Enter it at 7% nominal (or 5% real) and 25× last year's spending in Target FIRE on earlyfire.quest. Date too late? Raise the floor in LatteFactor, not the return.
Compound annual return (%)
Aswath Damodaran, Historical Returns on Stocks, Bonds and Bills, NYU Stern, updated 5 January 2026. Compound annual returns from published cumulative values of $100 invested at the start of 1928 (dividends reinvested): YE 1928 $143.81 → YE 1943 $139.59 (−0.20%); YE 1984 $11,823.51 → YE 1999 $156,658.05 (18.80%); YE 1999 $156,658.05 → YE 2014 $290,115.42 (4.19%); YE 2010 $163,441.94 → YE 2025 $1,157,598.95 (13.94%). The 98-year geometric on the same series is 10.02%. Not a forecast.